Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer scores from open play compared to at this stage last season.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight this campaign has been the reduction of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how clubs are finding goals more from set-plays instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches last season, we note 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less altogether.

If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last season.

And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, there have actually been a mere two extra shots generated from these situations excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective clubs have been at finding ways to score from set-pieces.

Goal Averages Show the Tale

The 301 goals scored in 110 games to date calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games would be the least for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

But just 196 goals coming in open-play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

2009-10 also marks the only Premier League season to witness scoring at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have recorded the largest decline, netting just four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with five out of the London's seven clubs netting five or more less scores from open-play than last season.

To be fair, that's largely down to them scoring many goals at the early stages of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to convert in open-play the current term.

At the same time Man City have experienced the most significant jump, with all but one of their 23 scores to date originating in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three extra goals in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games leading to demotion last season.

In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with each team compensating for the five less scores that they've produced in open play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

United have scored two times more scores from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games last season ahead of their coach took charge, while Sunderland once more are better at scoring than the similar-colored team they superseded.

Man City appear not to have received the message about scoring more from set-plays, since they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, although this may result from the change in style they're working to install.

Overall Patterns

Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's primary examples by recording fewer goals from open-play and increased from set-pieces, while Man City represent the unique club to buck the trend to date by achieving the complete reverse.

It remains to be seen to observe if teams persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and commence netting additional scores in open play as well.

Olivia Martin
Olivia Martin

A tech strategist with over a decade of experience in digital innovation, focusing on emerging technologies and their business applications.